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In the United States, it is Election Day. In the hours, days, and weeks to come, we will determine which major party controls the Senate, the White House, and the House of Representatives. Although Donald Trump and Kamala Harris may receive the most media attention, the party that controls Congress will likely significantly impact how cryptocurrencies are seen in the country, particularly shortly.
The Narrative
Today is Election Day in the United States. Numerous positions in state legislatures, local governments, and governors’ houses around the nation are up for grabs. Voters will decide who will hold the White House for the next four years, and there are 435 challenges in the US House of Representatives and 33 positions in the Senate.
Why it Matters
The next US president will play a significant role in selecting regulators and may even advocate for crypto restrictions through executive action or political lobbying. This may shape the US cryptocurrency markets for years to come.
However, this extends outside this particular industry as well. What kind of legislation, if any, will be approved in the coming years and how it might be put into effect will also depend on the composition of the House and Senate. Elections in 2024 are predicted to be historically close. The presidential election and some House and Senate seats seem a toss-up.
Breaking it down
There are now several legal options on the crypto front. They heavily depend on the election’s outcome, which, it should be noted, we might know later. According to Republican Representative Tom Emmer, who is currently the majority whip, we likely won’t see any progress toward crypto legislation this year if one party wins the White House, House, and Senate.
At a Crypto4Harris event in August, Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat and current majority leader, expressed his belief that a crypto bill may be passed by the end of 2024. It still needs to be determined precisely what that legislation might involve. The bill that lawmakers have brought up the most in recent months when questioned is FIT21, a crypto market structure bill supported by retiring Republican Representative Patrick McHenry.
Crypto's Guide to the Election
On Tuesday night, Coin Desk will broadcast a live blog during the US election tracking event. This sector is keeping a close eye on several House and Senate races, either because a candidate has voiced opinions regarding crypto legislation, because industry organizations have contributed to removing incumbents, or both.
The industry has invested almost $80 million in a few Senate races, mainly through the Fair Shake super political action committee and its affiliated PACs. Of that amount, $40 million will support Republican challenger Bernie Moreno and unseat Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, currently chairing the Senate Banking Committee. Based on 538’s compilation of polls, the race is essentially bound.
“This election is one of the next three cycles that looks most favourably toward Republicans,” Lummis stated at the August panel. “We will be on defence in purple states in the next two elections, and the Democrats are defending more seats in purple states.” Therefore, this is the best math for Republicans.
