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Ki Young Ju, the CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, posted observations on the X platform that suggest the Bitcoin bull market cycle is over. He used the idea of realized market value in blockchain data as an example. Bitcoin is seen as a "buy" when it enters a blockchain wallet and as a "sell" when it leaves.
This idea aids in estimating the average cost basis for every wallet, which provides the total realized market value when multiplied by the quantity of Bitcoin owned. While market value is determined by the most recent trading price on exchanges, this figure is frequently understood to represent the total amount of capital entering the Bitcoin market through genuine on-chain activity.
Realized and Surging Cap
- Realized Cap
Actual capital inflows are reflected in the realized cap, an on-chain indicator that tracks the average cost basis of Bitcoin holdings. Market capitalization evaluates estimated worth based on the price of Bitcoin as of the last trade. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of Cryptoquant, a bearish trend occurs when capital enters the market without price appreciation, when realized capital increases, and when the market cap remains the same.
- Surging Cap
On the other hand, bullish momentum fuelled by speculative buying is indicated by a rising market cap with a flat realized cap. According to recent data, realized capital is rising as investors buy more Bitcoin, but prices are still flat because of strong selling pressure. Ju noted the convertible bond-driven Bitcoin purchases made by Strategy, which increased paper gains at times when sales were weak.
Bullish Triggers Could Overcome Sell Pressure
The CEO of Cryptoquant said, "Even big purchases don't move the price when sell pressure is high. There are just too many providers. For instance, the market saw enormous volumes while Bitcoin was trading close to $100,000, yet the price hardly moved.”
Critics claim that on-chain data would overlook off-exchange activities. Still, Ju replied that significant capital flows, such as exchange transactions, custodial movements, and trades involving exchange-traded funds, are visible on-chain. Ju pointed out that short-term rallies are unlikely because bear market changes typically take at least six months.
Bitcoin has a history of exceeding expectations, so there is cause for optimism even though present measures indicate caution. Short-term sell pressure could be avoided if institutional adoption, Trump administration regulatory clarification, or favorable macroeconomic changes restore bullish momentum. Realized and Market Caps may realign if a sudden and positive development draws in new investment.
